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工業(yè)信息資源公司認(rèn)為波動(dòng)性使新的北美液化天然氣項(xiàng)目的投資決策變得模糊

美國液化天然氣出口設(shè)施開發(fā)商可能會(huì)在未來五年內(nèi)啟動(dòng)價(jià)值1000億美元的新廠

加拿大終于開始采取措施建設(shè)液化天然氣出口項(xiàng)目

中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年3月24日?qǐng)?bào)道，工業(yè)市場(chǎng)情報(bào)提供商工業(yè)信息資源公司(IIR)周五在一份新的研究報(bào)告中表示，美國和加拿大新的液化天然氣出口項(xiàng)目顯示出加速的跡象，但天然氣價(jià)格的波動(dòng)使得對(duì)未來供需的押注變得更加困難。

IIR在一份聲明中表示，“但太多太快的項(xiàng)目可能會(huì)壓垮整個(gè)行業(yè)。天然氣價(jià)格的波動(dòng)使人們難以押注未來，而出口減少了國內(nèi)需求?！?

在加拿大，不列顛哥倫比亞省政府已經(jīng)允許投資72億美元的Ksi Lisims浮式液化天然氣設(shè)施進(jìn)入環(huán)境審查程序。此舉是在加拿大西海岸的另一個(gè)項(xiàng)目Cedar液化天然氣獲得批準(zhǔn)之后，而此前殼牌公司在基蒂馬特的大型項(xiàng)目也取得了積極進(jìn)展。

據(jù)IIR稱，這些液化天然氣設(shè)施如果進(jìn)展到建設(shè)和運(yùn)營階段，可能會(huì)為加拿大提供一個(gè)出口北亞市場(chǎng)的液化天然氣出口渠道。

美國也在建設(shè)新的液化天然氣出口設(shè)施。

由于高價(jià)格和能源安全需求為長期液化天然氣需求和合同創(chuàng)造強(qiáng)勁動(dòng)力，美國液化天然氣出口設(shè)施開發(fā)商可能在未來五年內(nèi)啟動(dòng)價(jià)值1000億美元的新廠。

著名能源咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲在最近的一份報(bào)告中表示，在自由港液化天然氣出口設(shè)施恢復(fù)運(yùn)營后，美國今年將超過卡塔爾和澳大利亞，成為全球最大的液化天然氣出口國。

但根據(jù)IIR的分析，在可預(yù)見的未來，美國天然氣日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將徘徊在1000億立方英尺左右。

報(bào)告稱：“天然氣仍是美國國內(nèi)能源結(jié)構(gòu)的重要組成部分，預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)量將徘徊在近五年平均水平。”

根據(jù)美國能源信息署（EIA）公布的數(shù)據(jù)，美國基準(zhǔn)現(xiàn)貨亨利中心天然氣價(jià)格將從2月的低點(diǎn)上漲，原因是自由港液化天然氣出口設(shè)施重新開放的需求上升，電力行業(yè)需求的季節(jié)性增長，以及2023年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)國內(nèi)天然氣產(chǎn)量相對(duì)持平，原因是生產(chǎn)商為了應(yīng)對(duì)價(jià)格下跌而減少鉆井活動(dòng)。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

North American LNG Projects Plagued By Price Volatility

·     Industrial Info Resources: volatility obfuscates investment decisions on new North American LNG projects.

·     Developers of U.S. LNG export facilities could launch $100 billion worth of new plants over the next five years.

·     Canada is finally taking steps to build LNG export projects.

New U.S. and Canadian LNG export projects show signs of accelerating but volatile natural gas prices are making bets on future supply and demand difficult, industrial market intelligence provider Industrial Info Resources (IIR) said in new research on Friday.

“But too much too fast could overwhelm the sector. Volatility in natural gas prices makes it difficult to bet on the future and exports take away from domestic needs,” IIR said in a statement.  

In Canada, the provincial government of British Columbia has allowed the US$7.2 billion floating Ksi Lisims LNG facility to enter the environmental review process. The move followed consent for Cedar LNG, another project planned for Canada’s western coast, and both come on the heels of a positive step forward for Shell’s mega project at Kitimat.

Those LNG facilities, if progressed to construction and operations, could offer Canada an export outlet to the prized North Asian markets, according to IIR.

The U.S. is also progressing with new LNG export facilities.

Developers of U.S. LNG export facilities could launch $100 billion worth of new plants over the next five years as high prices and the need for energy security create strong momentum for long-term LNG demand and contracts. 

The United States is set to overtake Qatar and Australia as the world’s top LNG exporter this year after Freeport LNG resumes operations, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a recent report. 

But U.S. natural gas production is expected to hover around 100 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) for the foreseeable future, per IIR’s analysis.

“Natural gas remains an essential component of the domestic energy mix and production is expected to linger close to the five-year average,” it said.

According to the EIA, the U.S. benchmark spot Henry Hub prices are set to go up from the February lows due to rising demand from the Freeport LNG export facility reopening, seasonal increases in demand in the electric power sector, and relatively flat domestic gas production for the rest of 2023 as producers reduce drilling in response to lower prices.